7 haziran Seçimleri Analizi ve 1 Kasıma ışık tutan 10 Soru lütfen tahmini cevaplayarak bir sonuca ulaştım.
7 HAZİRAN SEÇİM SONUÇLARI
seçmen Sayısı 56.800
Kullanılan oy 47.500
Geçerli oy 46.159
AKP OYU :18.864 bin yüzde 40,87
CHP OYU:11.510 bin% 24,95
MHP OYU:7.520 bin % 16,29
HDP OYU:6.058 bin % 13,12
Bağımsızlar :500bin
SP -BBP :930bin
Diğer 800
—-
1) 7 haziranda 46.100 bin geçerli oy vardı ?
1 kasımda kaç seçmen sandığa gider ve kaçı geçerli oy kullanır?
2) 7 haziran da 500 bin e yakın bağımsız aday oyu vardı bu seçimde bağımsız aday çok az..
1 kasımda ,bu oylar hangi partilere gider?
3)7 haziranda sandığa gitmeyen akp seçmen miktarı nedir?1 kasımda bu seçmenler sandığa gider mi?giderse kaç adeti Akp için gider.?
4)7 haziranda 4 parti harici ,diğer partiler 1730 bin oy almış.
Aynı partiler 1 kasım da kaç oy alır?
5)7 haziran da hdp ye oy veren Chpli seçmen kaç adet? Bunların kaç adeti 1 kasımda chp yi tercih eder?
6)7 haziran da hdp ye oy veren ,AKP ye önceden oy vermiş seçmen adedi nedir?
1 Kasım da bu seçmen tipi kime oy verir? kaç adet?
7)7 haziran da mhp ye oy veren ,Akp ye önceden oy vermiş seçmen adedi nedir?
1 Kasım da bu seçmen tipi kime oy verir?Kaç adet?
8)a)7 haziran da Akp ye oy veren seçmenlerden ,
1 kasım da Chp ye oy verecek kaç seçmen olur?
b)7 haziran da Chp ye oy vermiş,1 kasımda Akp ye oy verecek kaç seçmen olur?
9)a)7 haziran da Akp ye oy veren seçmenlerden ,
1 kasım da Mhp ye oy verecek kaç seçmen olur?
b)7 haziran da Mhp ye oy vermiş,1 kasımda Akp ye oy verecek kaç seçmen olur?
10)a) haziran da Akp ye oy veren seçmenlerden ,
1 kasım da Hdp ye oy verecek kaç seçmen olur?
b)7 haziran da Hdp ye oy vermiş,1 kasımda Akp ye oy verecek kaç seçmen olur?
Bu Sorulara Cevap verirken önceki seçimleri sonuçları anketler şu anki yönelimler hepsi etken oldu.
1 KASIM SEÇİM TAHMİNİ
LEVENT SEKBAN (19-10-2015)
Önceki paylaşımlarda SORDUĞUM soruların ,cevaplarını vererek yaptığım ,bu bilimsel tahminde ,yanılma payı her bir parti için +|-1 puandır.
Anketlerin etkisinde kalınmadan ,tamamen önceki seçime göre seçmen hareketlerinin analizine göre yapılmıştır.+|-1 yanılma payı vardır
Seçmen sayısı 57.100 bin
Tahmini kullanılacak oy:50milyon
Tahmini geçerli oy 49 Milyon
Tahmini
Akp oyu 19 milyon %38,77. 235 Mvekili
Chp Oyu: 14 milyon % 28,57. 151 Mvekili
Mhp oyu 9,5 milyon % 19,38. 93 Mvekili
Hdp oyu : 5,5 milyon % 11,22 71 Mvekli
Sp-Bbp :700 bin
Diğer :300 bin

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