Levent Sekban dan /23 haziran 2019 Saat =9.00
23 Haziran 2019 İBB Yenileme seçimleri TAHMİNLERİ – Olası Sonuç Tahmini
Levent Sekban atabey Türk Ocakları Kurucu ÜYE
LevenT Sekban ATABEY Türk Ocakları Kurucu ÜYE -GnlBşkVekili
Merhaba kısaca bu konuda Analiz ve Tahminlerimi açıklayacağım.
31 Mart İbb Seçimlerinde 10mil570 bin seçmenden 8.866bin seçmen sandığa gitmiş,
Bu seçmenlerin yaklaşık 70bini 23 Haziran seçiminde oy kullanamayacak ,
Çünkü bu seçmenler usulsüz yerleştirilmiş olduğu iddia edildiği için itiraz edildi ve kabul edilerek bu Seçmen listelerinden çıkarıldı.
Benim Tahminim
1)23 Haziran da 10,5 milyon Seçmenin 9.100 bini Sandığa gidecek..
31 Mart Da Geçerli oy 8.540 Bin di ,Sandığa gidenlerin 329 bini geçersiz oy kullanmıştı.Bu geçersiz oyların ,tahminimce yarısı protesto içindi.
Acaba Bu protesto oyları Sandığa bir daha gider mi giderse geçersiz mi oy kullanır, Karşı adaya mı oy verir.? Bu soruların cevapları çok önemli..
Levent Sekban olarak tahminim, 23 Haziran da geçersiz oylar En fazla 150 -200 bin arası olacak
2)Buna göre Kanımca,Geçerli oy sayısı 8900-8.950bin Civarı olacak ..
Yani 31 Mart Da 8.540 bin Hesaba konu olan Geçerli oy sayısı 23 Haziran da 8.900 -8.950 bine çıkacak..
3) 31 Mart Da İmamoğlu 4171bin Yıldırım 4.150bin geçerli oy almıştı
9100 bin katılımcı olursa ,bir önceki seçime göre 250 bin kişinin daha sandığa gitmesi demek
Toplam Sandığa 9.100 Bin kişi gidecek,8.900 bin kişi geçerli oy kullanacak diye tahmin ediyorum Katılım %86-87 arası olacak.
Tahminimce hesaba konu olan geçerli Oyların sayısı ,
23 hazirana göre 350 360 bin daha artmış oluyor.
31 Marta katılan 100bin kişi 23 haziran da sandığa gitmeyecek ama 31 marta katılmayan 350-360 bin kişi sandığa gidecek bu da katılımı 250 bin arttıracak.. Geçerli oyların sayısı da bazı nedenlerden dolayı da 350bin daha artmış olacak..
4) 31 mart da İmamoğlu, 4.171 bin Yıldırım 4.150 bin almıştı. 210 Bin de diğer adayların oyları vardı.
23 haziran da Seçime katılacak 4 Aday ve bağımsızlar var , Seçime katılmayacak parti ve bağımsızların 31 mart daki geçerli oy sayısı 94 bin bunu da belirtelim.
5)SONUÇ Detaylı bir analiz ve saha çalışmasından sonra ,LEVENT SEKBAN olarak
SON TAHMİNİM ŞUDUR.
23 hazirandaki İBB Başkanlık yenileme seçimleri için
İmamoğlu 4mil 171binden 210 bin daha arttırarak = 4.350-4.400 bin arası oy alacak..
B.Yıldırım 4mil 150bin den 100 Bin oy daha arttırarak= 4.250-4300 Bin Oy Alacak
4miyon 400 bin oy toplam tahmini 8900bin -8950bin arası olan Geçerli oyların
Yüzde %49,5 u dur , Yıldırım % 48,5 Bu tahmini oylar + – 30bin Oynayabilir.
L.S Son Tahmin
İMAMOĞLU SEÇİMİ KAZANACAK % 49,50 Yıldırım % 48,5 + – 30Bin oy oynayabilir.
SEVGİLER SAYGILAR
23 HAZİRAN 2019 saat 09.00
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